MAKULUS

The Organism · Day 31

A private research organism built in 31 days to find real trading edge — and to refuse to believe itself until the evidence arrives. It has proven nothing yet. That is by design.

↓ descend

The two clocks

Search

free · unbounded · running hot

357

trials charged

8,313 look family7,416 cells437 tickers

Proof

calendar-bound · cannot be rushed

5/30

freeze-days

250 · 5d

0 · 10d

0 · 20d

Search is free and runs hot. Proof runs on the calendar and cannot be rushed, bought, or faked. Makulus is built to survive the difference.

The body · six organ systems

Data · point-in-time

437

tickers under vintage-frozen coverage · sentinel green

Research factory

110 jobs

18 designs registered · 13 accruing forward

Truth engine

8,313

looks in the family deflating every claim · 0 survivors — the bar that refuses

The books

10 real closed

paper 51 short · 8 options — never confused with real

Decision

1-screen cockpit

verdict · why-not · your stop drawn on the price

Survival

97/0

selftest battery green · hard stops mandatory from trade 11

The evidence pyramid · weighted by honesty

Proven forward

Zero strategies have cleared out-of-sample + the family-FDR bar. Zero gauntlet survivors.

Believed · unproven

279 deployed · all tier C

Research-only signals + 18 hypotheses accruing. Believed enough to watch, not enough to trust.

Unknown — accrues with time

calibration · cost truth · regime robustness

The base is the largest by design. Conviction calibration UNKNOWN at 5/30 freeze-days; execution cost modeled until real fills arrive; bear-regime robustness unproven.

Zero strategies proven forward. Ten real trades. Five of thirty freeze-days. A lesser machine would round this up. This one is built not to.

The frontier · what the evidence hints, honestly

Overnight vs intraday

Directional

Overnight +8.6 bps/bar vs intraday +2.4 across 279 names; per-name decay +37…+66 bps (8 names). A gap-risk premium — not proven alpha.

Stop policy · own book

Directional · n=14

On the real book, tight stops hurt. Only 1.5×ATR is positive without whipsawing. Paper shorts (n=51) echo it: 1.0×ATR +0.48pp.

Cost truth

Modeled

Every candidate carries a breakeven — the round-trip cost that zeroes its edge. All of it rides a modeled 0.2% until real fills arrive.

1 / 5 real fills

The horizon · the gates ahead

5 → 30freeze-days — before conviction can be calibrated

10 → 20real closed trades — before the first directional claim

1 → 5real fills — before modeled cost becomes measured cost

2027-01the registered designs mature · 10 vault envelopes, sealed, open on evidence only

Nothing here asks to be believed. It asks to be checked. Confidence ∝ evidence — check again at n = 100.